My Take

Baltimore Ravens – 10.5 (take the over)

This may seem like a daunting number at first glance, but once you take a look at the Ravens schedule for the upcoming season, you’ll probably be ready to make some wagers.

In order to decrease the wordage of this article, I’ll sum up the Ravens’ schedule in one word; Cushy.

This team has the 2^nd easiest schedule in the entire league. It’s no surprise why. They’ll play both the Browns and Bengals twice, and that’s in addition to their division getting matched up with the lowly NFC West this season.

Throw in two early season matchups against Tennessee and Jacksonville, do some elementary math and then realize that the Ravens have TEN games where the only thing that stands between them and a win, is the door of the team bus.

To get to the over, the Ravens will need to win ONE (yes, only one) of their other six games. I believe they’ll win at least three of those (Houston, Indianapolis, @ San Diego) and I wouldn’t be surprised if they took care of the Jets and Steelers at home.

The Ravens will be the favorite in all but one of their sixteen games. That one game is @Pittsburgh.

Best case: 15-1

Worst case: 11-5

Most likely: 13-3

Cincinnati Bengals- 5.5 (Gun to my head; over)

I’ve gone back and forth with this. I even wrote out an entire explanation of why I think the bet here should be the under. But then I deleted it and started over again after looking at the upcoming schedule.

The Bengals have the 4^th easiest schedule this season. As mentioned above with the Ravens, the entire AFC North will play the entire NFC West this year. The previous sentence is my main argument for taking the over.

Looking over the first nine weeks (they have BYE week 7) the Bengals will have a chance to win SEVEN games. The one game they’ll for sure lose is against Indianapolis in week 6. Their first nine weeks looks like this: @Cleveland, @Denver, San Francisco, Buffalo, @Jacksonville, Indianapolis, BYE, @Seattle, and @Tennessee.

I think the Bengals go four out of the first six (Cleveland, San Francisco, Buffalo and Jacksonville) and take a well-deserved week off before heading to Seattle. I believe they will win @Seattle before losing to the Titans. That leaves them with FIVE wins heading into the second half of their season.

From week 10 to week 17 the Bengals will have a chance in three games. Those games are week 12 against Cleveland, week 15 @St. Louis and week 16 versus Arizona. I like Cincinnati to beat Cleveland once more, but I see them losing to both St. Louis and Arizona to finish with a record of 6-10.

Remember my earlier comment on how the AFC North matching up with the NFC West is the reason I took the over? My whole reason for that comment is because I believe the Bengals will win at least two and maybe even three of those games against those teams. If the AFC North played any other conference, I would have taken the under.

Best case: 8-8

Worst case: 2-14

Most likely 6-10

Cleveland Browns- 6.5 (take the under)

Another year, another disappointment. Well, that’s how I think Browns’ fans are going to feel after the 2011-2012 campaign.

The Browns will play the 13^th ranked schedule this season. Not horrible, but not nearly as nice as the other three teams in the AFC North. Everyone else will be playing a schedule ranked inside the top five in the league as far as easiness goes.

Looking over their schedule, I just don’t see a way this team wins FIVE games, let alone the SEVEN required to pick the over.

I already said I believe the Bengals will sweep the Browns, so that leaves us with only EIGHT games the Browns will have a chance to win. Of those eight games, three are in the West (San Francisco, Arizona and Oakland) and I don’t want to have to have to rely on a bad team winning at least two games that far from home.

That being said, I like the Browns to defeat the Dolphins (week 3), Titans (week 4), Seahawks (week 7) and Jaguars (week 11). I think that the week 10 game versus the Rams will be difficult, but they may be able to get that one as well.

Right there is FIVE wins, and I’m not too comfortable with them winning all of the games I mentioned. Maybe they squeak out a win against Cincinnati and a game on the West Coast, but I’m not willing to put money on that.

You just have to go with your gut, and mine’s telling me that a 7-9 season for the Browns is a stretch at best.

Best case: 7-9

Worst case: 3-13

Most likely: 5-11

Pittsburgh Steelers- 10.5 (take the over)

The Steelers are really in the same boat as the Ravens. They have an easy schedule (5^th overall) and will be favored in the overwhelming majority of their games. They’ll make the playoffs again, but it’s tough to predict whether they’ll be making the playoffs as a division champ or a wildcard.

In my opinion, the Steelers have EIGHT games where they shouldn’t break a sweat (4 NFC West games and 4 combined between Bengals and Browns). Throw in Tennessee and Jacksonville and we come to the same count as the Ravens (10 wins) in similar games.

I think the Ravens and Steelers will each win at home, in effect canceling out the division tiebreaker. Assuming that’s the case, that means the Steelers will have at least 11 wins, therefore successfully beating the 10.5 over-under.

The remaining four undecided games should cause Steeler fans to worry a bit. These games are @Indianapolis (week 3), @Houston (week 4), New England (week 8) and @ Kansas City (week 12). I think they will probably beat Houston and I think the week 11 BYE ensures they will beat Kansas City, but my point is that these aren’t gimmes.

I like the Colts to win at home on Sunday Night Football and I think New England will beat Pittsburgh when they come to town as well.

Beating the 10.5 threshold will be no problem, but I think the Ravens carry the division this season.

Best case: 14-2

Worst Case- 11-5

Most likely: 12-4

What to do with Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick? I have heard many opinions on what the Eagles should do about their stable of quarterbacks. Some of these opinions are right on the mark, but for the most part, the ideas are head scratching at best.

Before this decision is made, it would be very helpful to look at what happened during the season.

Last season was supposed to be Kevin Kolb's opportunity to lead the Eagles as their starting QB, but the Green Bay Packers had other ideas, leading to a Kolb concussion the first game of the season.

Fast forward nine days to September 22 and Andy Reid makes the announcement that Michael Vick will remain the Eagle's starting QB. That announcement came after Vick amassed nearly 600 yards of total offense and three touchdowns in less than seven full quarters of play.

After being named the starter, Vick went out and helped blow-out the Jaguars of Jacksonville and then suffers a rib injury against one of the Eagles' divisional rivals, the Washington Redskins. This resulted in yet another QB switch. This time, the switch was in Kolb's benefit.

Kolb led the Eagles to a 2-2 record with over 1,000 yards passing and six touchdowns compared to four interceptions. Those numbers are pretty good, but definitely not Vick numbers.

After the bye week, Vick resumed his role as starting QB and led the Eagles to a 6-2 record that locked up the NFC East and the #3 seed in the playoffs. A Vick interception in the final moments of the Eagles' playoff game against the Packers ended the season and started the discussion with what to do next season.

So again, what to do with Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick? The first part of the question has already been decided unofficially. Michael Vick will be back as the Eagles' starting QB next season. The only question that must be answered in regard to Vick is whether to sign him to an extension or to franchise tag him (CBA allowing) for the 2011-2012 season.

It's no secret that Vick has suffered tremendous financial losses as a result of his well publicized conviction for involvement in an illegal dog fighting ring. Because of this, re-signing Vick to a multi-year extension will involve some serious financial considerations.

An extension for Vick would probably result in an average yearly cost of $12 million. A franchise tag last season for a QB was worth around $16.5 million.

Vick is not a regular QB though. He stands out from the crowd by using his legs to create plays. With the hits that he takes because of his playing style, it's easy to see why there is some concern about giving a mega-deal to a QB that gets treated like a tether ball during recess on game days.

The safe play (and arguably the smarter play) is clearly the franchise tag. It results in more money but not nearly the amount of commitment.

However, my opinion is that Vick will have an even better season next year and that his cost of an extension will be astronomically higher in 2012 compared to this off season. If the Eagles can get Vick to accept a four year deal in the $50 million range (around $20 million guaranteed) then I say go for it. Anything over four years is too risky for this type of QB. If he wants anything more than that offer then I say franchise tag him next season and try again next season.

Now that Vick's situation is dealt with, it's time to deal with Kolb.

Kolb is in the final year of his contract and he is scheduled to make around $1.5 million. That means that there is no reason to move him unless the Eagles' get exactly what they want for him via trade (which is reportedly no worse than a first round draft pick).

There are numerous teams that need a QB before the next season of play (eight teams fall into the “need” category) so it's very likely that teams will be in contact with Eagle's GM Howie Roseman around draft time.

Why not before? This is because teams will not be able to make any trades until a new CBA is agreed upon.

Last season Kolb racked up just under 1,200 yards with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. These aren't great numbers, but Kolb has shown that he is capable of at least competing for an NFL starting job.

The chances of Kolb being traded also increase because of the rising of 3^rd string QB Mike Kafka. Eagles coaches have been very impressed with the rookie out of Northwestern and the consensus is that there might not be much of a drop off from Kolb to Kafka.

Personally, I don't think Kolb is worth a first-round pick. He has shown flashes of greatness (several games of 300 yards passing and a solid completion percentage) but nothing that I consider to be worthy of a top 32 pick.

It just happens that so many teams are in need of a starting QB so team reaching for Kolb with a high first round pick is more likely than not.

Don't get me wrong though. Philadelphia has a first class problem. There isn't a team in the league that wouldn't want to have a top five QB in this league along with a very popular backup.

Andy Reid has said that he'd like to keep both quarterbacks for next season, but the chances of having Vick and Kolb on the roster in the 2012-2013 (as in Kolb signing a new contract) season is about the same as having Donovan McNabb on next season's roster.

The risk of losing Kolb for nothing is too great to keep him next season. The team has too many problems (CB and O-Line) that can be nearly eradicated with two first round picks this season.

My opinion is that the Titans will use their first round pick to acquire Kolb.

For now, one QB is currently on the roster (Kolb) and one isn't (Vick). I look for that to be just the opposite come the start of the new season.

My Top 25 and Notes

1. Auburn 14-0

2. TCU 13-0 (didn’t lose a game. No way can I put a team that didn’t even have an opportunity to play for the Title over a team that had a shot and lost.)

3. Ohio State 12-1 (beat 7 bowl bound teams in regular season along with an impressive bowl win on SEC soil against Arkansas. I also think last year’s Oregon team may be better than this season’s version and we know what the score of the Rose Bowl was.)

4. Oregon 12-1 (beat only 4 bowl bound teams in regular season. Beat Stanford)*

5. Stanford 12-1 (also beat only 4 bowl bound teams)*

6. LSU 11-2 (I don’t really understand how you have Alabama higher than LSU. Both have essentially identical SOS, Alabama has one more loss and LSU beat Alabama)

7. Alabama 10-3 (Two best wins (Arkansas and Michigan St. soundly) are better than Oklahoma’s close wins over Oklahoma St. and Nebraska. Plus, I think Alabama would win by two scores.)

8. Oklahoma 12-2 (Big 12 Champ and only lost two games against a pretty good schedule. Did what they were supposed to do and then some against UCONN.)

9. Arkansas 10-3 (3 quality wins against South Carolina, LSU and Mississippi State coupled with two close losses against top 7 team. Did get blown out by Auburn, but last I checked, Auburn has the glass ball.)

10. Boise State 12-1 (They knew how tiny their margin of error was because of the weakness of the WAC and it bit them in the butt. They lost a game and didn’t deserve a BCS spot.)**

11. Wisconsin 11-2 (Played a very mediocre scheduled yet they finished with two blemishes. Better team than Oklahoma State, but barely.)

12. Oklahoma State 11-2 ( Their two losses came against the Big 12 Title Game teams and I believe that two losses in the Big 12 is better than one loss in the WAC)

13. Nevada 12-1 (Big win against Boise State but after that there’s nothing to get excited about. Virginia Tech is probably the better team, but the transitive property shows that Nevada is the better team because they beat a Boise State team who knocked off Virginia Tech.)

14. Michigan State 11-2 (Played in a tougher conference than the ACC, one less loss, Wisconsin and Notre Dame is a better overall combination of wins than Florida State and NC State, and they didn’t lose to James Madison. Both teams played horribly in their respective bowl games but I’d rather lose in daylight compared to primetime.)

15. Virginia Tech 11-3 (I give them a little bit more credit than Nebraska because they did win their conference. I also frown on putting teams in the top 15 that lost a bowl game against a team that had six previous losses.)

16. Nebraska 10-4 (Beat Missouri and played in conference championship game. Also, a loss against a top 10 NFL pick at QB is much better than a loss against five loss Iowa, who also happened to be without their two leading rushers.)

17. Missouri 10-3 (Beat Oklahoma (something Florida State failed to accomplish) and losing two games in the Big 12 is much more respectable compared to three losses in the lowly ACC)

18. Florida State 10-4 (They were the ACC runner-up, but I give them the nod over Texas A&M because they won their bowl game against an above average South Carolina program.)

19. Texas A&M 9-4 (Played a nearly identical schedule (as far as SOS in concerned) compared to South Carolina. Strong wins over Oklahoma and Nebraska and four losses to teams inside the top 17 (including a three and seven point loss to OK State and Arkansas respectively) sounds much better than South Carolina blowout losses to Auburn and Arkansas, mixed in with a loss to a bad Kentucky team.)

20. South Carolina 9-5 (Had one more win than Iowa against a significantly difficult schedule. Also, I could never put a team in the top 20 that lost to Minnesota.)

21. Iowa 8-5 (They did lose five games (two to Ohio State and Iowa which can be excused) but they beat Missouri and Michigan State. Mississippi State’s two best wins came against Florida and Georgia. Nothing stellar about that.)

22. Mississippi State 9-4 (Yes, they played a nearly perfect game against Michigan, but it was Michigan. They may have the best set of losses in the country (four losses against teams in the top nine) but as was mentioned above, they don’t have any quality wins. Take any of their four losses and change it to a win and this is a top 15ish team easily.

23. NC State 9-4 (Both Maryland and NC State finished at 9-4. NC State did lose to Maryland in the regular season finale but NC State has two quality wins (Florida State and West Virginia) over opponents that Maryland played against and lost. However, Maryland did have a perfect game against an East Carolina team that ended up defeating NC State. The tiebreaker for me was the fact that NC State played a tougher schedule and their two extra ACC games were against North Carolina and Georgia Tech, whereas Maryland’s extra games were against the worst (Duke who lost by only five points) and third worst (Virginia) teams in the ACC.

24. Maryland 9-4 (see above)

25. Tulsa 10-3 (This spot came down to Notre Dame or Tulsa and I went with the Golden Hurricane. Tulsa did beat Notre Dame in South Bend but what really put them over the top was the game against heavily favored Hawaii. Tulsa didn’t just win; they blew away (pun intended) the Rainbow Warriors by four touchdowns. Notre Dame also lost the benefit of the doubt when you account for a bad loss against Michigan as well as an equally questionable three score loss to Navy.)

Close, but not quite enough

1. Notre Dame 8-5 (The Irish would have taken the final spot if it wasn’t for Tulsa’s thrashing of Hawaii.)

2. UCF 11-3 (A very close call as well. It would have been fantastic if we could have seen Tulsa instead of SMU in the Conference USA Title game, but it wasn’t meant to be based on SMU holding the head to head tiebreaker.)

3. Utah 10-3 (Utah definitely had its chances for an even more successful season but when it came down to it they just couldn’t step their game up. Wins over Pittsburgh, San Diego State and BYU are nice, but blowout losses to TCU, Notre Dame and Boise State will almost always result in a team being on the outside looking in.)

4. Northern Illinois 11-3 (Played the toughest opponents in the MAC and came within five points of staying undefeated in the conference. Wins against Temple, Toledo and Fresno State had the Huskies in consideration for a spot in the top 25, but the loss to Miami (OH) sealed the deal.

5. West Virginia 9-4 (You’ve gotta give all the BCS conferences some love, right? West Virginia is probably the best team to come out of the worst BCS conference. A total of 14 points is the difference between a 9-3 and 12-0 season. Wins against Pittsburgh, South Florida, Maryland and Louisville are respectable. However, the poor showing in their bowl game against NC State and losses to Syracuse and UCONN prevent the Mountaineers from getting ranked.

*- I understand that most people think the Pac-10 is either the first or second ranked conference. It really doesn’t matter to me. The idea that a conference, containing only four bowl-eligible teams, being considered better than the SEC, Big 12 and maybe even the Big 10, is something I can’t comprehend.

Oregon’s best win outside of Stanford is Oregon State. Give me a couple seconds to chuckle.

Sure, Oregon State played a very difficult schedule, but even conceding games against TCU, Boise State, Oregon and Stanford they should be 8-4 or at the very least, 7-5. That didn’t happen though because they lost easy games against one of the worst teams in FBS (Washington State) and a very bad UCLA team.

What is Oregon’s next best win? A 7-6 Washington or Arizona? A bad USC team?

Since the Pac 10 is awful, I should assume that Oregon played a solid non-conference schedule, right? Wrong. Their “difficult” games included New Mexico, Tennessee and a 2-9 FCS school.

What about Stanford? Surely their three non-conference games must be against competitive teams. If you believed that last statement, then be prepared to be disappointed. Stanford did play a decent Notre Dame team, but it’s canceled out when you throw in a 6-5 FCS team along with a horrendous Wake Forest team.

Name some quality Stanford wins? Okay, obviously Virginia Tech is the best win but isn’t that that same Frank Beamer led squad that pooped their pants against James Madison? Sure, they did finish on top of the “mighty” ACC, but the ACC is synonymous with the word “suck”.

I have Ohio State on top of both teams because I truly feel they could beat either team. I’m not convinced that this year’s Oregon team is better than last year’s team (as I mentioned above) and Ohio State beat Oregon in every way possible in the Rose Bowl last season. And since Stanford is not better than Oregon, it’s much easier to say that OSU could beat Stanford.

My ranking of the conferences goes:

1. SEC

2. Big 12

3. Big 10

4. Pac 10

5. ACC

6. Big East

I contemplated putting the ACC ahead of the Pac 10 because I think the ACC could beat the Pac 10 (assuming you match it up the right way).

**-The infatuation with Boise State is sickening, in my opinion. Boise State gets to play against JV teams for ¾ of the season whereas AQ have to play against each other. Several things piss me off about the love for Boise State.

Ohio State was ranked #1 heading into their game at #18 Wisconsin. The loss dropped the Buckeyes nine spots in the AP Poll to #10 and ten spots in the USA Today/ESPN Poll to #11.

Boise State was ranked #3 heading into their game at #19 Nevada. The loss dropped the Broncos six spots in the AP to #9 and seven spots in the USA Today/ESPN poll to #10.

How the hell does that make any sense?

I don’t root against Boise State. I agree that an undefeated season should result in a BCS berth for the Broncos, but the idea of a one loss, non-AQ team (in this case Boise) replacing Ohio State or Stanford this season or any other season is preposterous and a fantasy at best.

Tony Sparano made the right decision to resign from the Miami Dolphins upon hearing reports that Dolphins' owner Stephen Ross was a total of four coaches including new 49ers head coach, Jim Harbaugh.

It was a decision that had to be ma.......... Wait, what? He didn't resign. Wow.

A lot of criticism has been hurled at Ross the last couple of days. Most people believe in the premise of contracts. I believe Ross does as well, hence the contract he gave to Sparano locking him in as coach until 2011. So why is he looking for a new coach before firing the present one?

Obviously, Ross is the owner, so there's no explanation needed. Unfortunately for Ross, he stabbed himself with the same knife that he was planning to put into Sparano's back. Still, I'd rather have a knife lodged in me than to feel the pain of not having a spine (yeah, that one's for you coach).

Coaching in the NFL is difficult enough, even with a great owner on your side. I don't think the word "success" can even be in Sparano's vocabulary, what with the proverbial piano always over his head. Nonetheless, if it's that big of a deal then get out.

And yes, I have read enough stories arguing that the stable of quarterbacks (or lack thereof) is more to blame for the less than stellar 7-9 season that the Dolphins limped through. Again, that's another joke, right?

Chad Henne was praised by Sparano before the 2010 season. So it was his choice not to go after another quarterback. Glad to get that out of the way.

I really want to hammer in on my disdain for the way Stephen Ross has handled this whole situation. It's not right to go behind someone's back, but evidently, it doesn't bother Coach Sparano nearly as much as it does me because he will be the head coach for the 2011 season.

I still have a bigger problem with Sparano's acceptance of Ross throwing him in the garbage only to pick him out a couple days later.

I'm all for having pride and possessing the ability to let things roll off your back but this situation seems a lot like the plot of the movie "Dead Man Walking".

Sparano is playing the role of Sean Penn, Stephen Ross is the executioner and Chad Henne is playing the role of Susan Sarandon.

To make a long story short, Sparano is about to be put to death (fired) but puts his faith in Chad Henne to save him (to complete passes to members of his own team) but Henne fails resulting in the executioner (Ross) ending his life.

Seriously, it's the exact same plot.

What scenario could possibly involve Sparano being the coach past next season? I can almost guarantee the Dolphins don't match the 7-9 mark that they finished with this season. Why? Several reasons.

First, they play in the AFC East which means four games combined with the Patriots and Jets. Also, the Bills played them well this year and there's no doubt the Bills will improve next season.

Second, they are matched up with the NFC East and AFC West next season. Who wants to play the Eagles, Giants and Cowboys and then have to play a couple West Coast games?

Third, Chad Henne. Period.

Even throwing out the fact that Mr. Ross asked four other people to the dance before backtracking and deciding to go with his own girlfriend, just digest those three reasons.

Sparano has two options. Stay on as head coach, which has turned out to be little more than a token position, or quit and jump on as someone else's head coach or coordinator.

I feel very strongly that Sparano still can be a quality head football coach in this league. Just not with the Dolphins.

So Tony, for the sake of all men in this country, resign as head coach as the Miami Dolphins. Stephen Ross has already made his decision about you, time you make your decision on what you think about him.

Oh yeah, that and then once you leave Miami, just fuh getta bout it.